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Risks & limitations

Confidence score

Also known as: confidence, calibration, uncertainty

Definition

A confidence score estimates how reliable an output is. Language models do not natively produce calibrated confidence, and asking a model how sure it is yields poorly calibrated self-assessment.

Models express confidence in tone regardless of accuracy, and self-reported confidence correlates weakly with correctness. "I'm 95% certain" from a model is not a probability.

More useful signals exist. Token log-probabilities give a rough measure of the model's own uncertainty over its output. Self-consistency — sampling several times and measuring agreement — is a reasonable proxy: high disagreement indicates low reliability. For RAG, retrieval scores indicate whether relevant context was even found.

Use these to route rather than to report. Escalate low-confidence cases to review instead of surfacing a false precision to users.

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